Friday, April 1, 2016

New Movies Friday: 4-1-16

When the biggest new movie of the weekend is God's Not Dead 2, you know it is a weak group of releases.  The only question that matters this weekend is how much will Batman v Superman drop in its second weekend?  Last weekend, Batman v Superman broke all March records pulling in a huge 166 million and it's numbers during the week have been strong for this time of the year as well.  There is no historical reference for a superhero movie at this time of the year, so the usual rules don't apply.  The Marvel movies second weekend drops usually fall within the 55%-60% range, but that shouldn't be expected for this film.  While the first week numbers have been impressive, the word-of-mouth for the movie is average, so the drop should be more steep than the big Marvel hits.  Look for Batman v Superman to drop 60%-65% this weekend which would mean its second weekend will come in around 58-66 million.  Anywhere in that range would be more than acceptable for BvS, but anything less would not be good news for the movies domestic longevity in theaters.

The only new major release this weekend is the sequel to the surprise 2014 hit, God's Not Dead 2.  Unlike in 2014, when the movie was the lone faith based film in theaters, God's Not Dead 2 comes out after a month of faith based movies hit the theaters.  After Risen, The Young Messiah and Miracles from Heaven, I have serious doubts this movie will achieve the 60 million domestic gross the original made in theaters.  A check over at Rotten Tomatoes shows the film isn't getting good reviews as it is currently 17% fresh, but reviews won't matter to its audience.  Look for God's Not Dead 2 to pull in 10-12 million this weekend and for the film to end its run around the 35 million mark.

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