Captain America: Civil War will be attempt to be the number one movie at the box-office for a third weekend in a row, but it won't be easy. Mr. America has been following the same drop percentages that Avengers 2 had, so expect a 50% drop this weekend and a total of around 36 million.
Three new movies open this weekend and the biggest of these movies is Angry Birds. In part one of my summer movie preview, I noted that I thought Angry Birds would follow the pattern of a couple of the Ice Age movies, so I expect a 42-44 million open for the pissed off birds. Reviews for the movie are not Pixar level, but good reviews were not expected for a kids movie like this one. The movie has a not so good 45% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, but this is a movie strictly for kids and not critics so that won't matter. Nothing should keep these irate birds from winning the weekend.
The second new release is Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising which is a sequel to the 2014 surprise hit, Neighbors. The first movie opened to 49 million, but this movie is not tracking as well as the first one did. A check at Rotten Tomatoes shows the movie is getting a pretty good 66% fresh rating, but due to its average tracking, I expect the movie to open around 35 million.
The final new release is the best reviewed of the three new movies with a 91% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. The tracking for The Nice Guys has been all over the place this week. The numbers I've seen have it anywhere between 10-20 million, so I'm going with right in the middle of that. I expect a 15 million opening which would equal what Money Monster did last week, but the movie should do better overall due to better word-of-mouth.