Friday, May 20, 2016

New Movie's Friday: 5-20-16

Captain America: Civil War will be attempt to be the number one movie at the box-office for a third weekend in a row, but it won't be easy.  Mr. America has been following the same drop percentages that Avengers 2 had, so expect a 50% drop this weekend and a total of around 36 million.

Three new movies open this weekend and the biggest of these movies is Angry Birds.  In part one of my summer movie preview, I noted that I thought Angry Birds would follow the pattern of a couple of the Ice Age movies, so I expect a 42-44 million open for the pissed off birds.  Reviews for the movie are not Pixar level, but good reviews were not expected for a kids movie like this one.  The movie has a not so good 45% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes, but this is a movie strictly for kids and not critics so that won't matter.  Nothing should keep these irate birds from winning the weekend.

The second new release is Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising which is a sequel to the 2014 surprise hit, Neighbors.  The first movie opened to 49 million, but this movie is not tracking as well as the first one did.  A check at Rotten Tomatoes shows the movie is getting a pretty good 66% fresh rating, but due to its average tracking, I expect the movie to open around 35 million.

The final new release is the best reviewed of the three new movies with a 91% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes.  The tracking for The Nice Guys has been all over the place this week.  The numbers I've seen have it anywhere between 10-20 million, so I'm going with right in the middle of that.  I expect a 15 million opening which would equal what Money Monster did last week, but the movie should do better overall due to better word-of-mouth.

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