Friday, July 22, 2016

New Movies Friday: 7.22.16

Due to being on vacation last week, I didn't write about the Ghostbusters reboot, but the movie opened a bit under what I would have predicted.  I was thinking 50-55 million for its opening weekend and it pulled in 46 million.  Whether there will be a second film in the new series will depend a lot on how the movie holds.  Word-of-mouth has been decent, but not good as its Cinemascore grade is a B+.  Anything less than an A- Cinemascore for a movie like this is a sign the movie won't have good legs at the box-office.  I guarantee those behind Ghostbusters are hoping for a second weekend drop of less than 50%, but I just don't see that happening.  I think a drop of around 55% should be expected.  Look for Ghostbusters to pull in 20-22 million this weekend. 

Speaking of reboots, the highly successful Star Trek reboot continues with the third film in the series, Star Trek Beyond.  The first Star Trek reboot opened to 75 million, while the second one on the series opened to 70 million.  I think somewhere in that range seems right for Beyond.  Like the previous two movies in the series, Beyond is getting stellar reviews with a 86% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes.  Being Independence Day 2 flopped at that box-office, I think sci-fi fans are ready for this movie.  Look for Star Trek Beyond to pull in 70-75 million this weekend.

The very popular Ice Age series continues this weekend with the fifth film in the series, Ice Age: Collision Course.  Every film in the series has opened above 40 million, but the onslaught of animated movies in 2016 has to hurt one of these movies at some point.  I think Collision Course would have been better suited being released before or after the summer movie season.  The film series has never been liked by critics and the newest film is getting a series worse 12% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes, but fans of the series will still show up.  Look for Ice Age: Collision Course to open around 35 million this weekend.

The final new release this weekend is the horror film Lights Out and I expect this one to follow the same patterns of The Shallows.  Lights Out is already a hit with critics as the movie is getting a strong 77% fresh rating from critics at Rotten Tomatoes (just like The Shallows did).  The Shallows opened to 16 million and I think around that number makes sense for Lights Out.  Look for Lights Out to pull in 16-18 million this weekend.

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